Finance · financial crime

Screen for the coordinated fraud rings pairwise models miss

A method for reading collective behaviour in payment networks. We measured where pairwise models go wrong; no detection gain is claimed.

Headline result

72% pairwise error found

The pairwise prediction was wrong by 72% on the collective response we measured

Measured on quantum hardwareClassical computation
Still from the Merlin Quantum film: rack hardware close up
01 · The decision

The decision on the table

Fraud rings act together. Most transaction-risk models score accounts and pairs of accounts, which adds up individual signals and can miss behaviour that only appears when a group moves at once.

02 · What we did

What we did, with proprietary methods

We treat the payment network as a coupled system and read its collective response, on quantum hardware and in simulation, and compare that with what a pairwise-additive model predicts for the same network.

03 · What it was worth

What it was worth

The pairwise prediction was wrong by 72% on the collective response we measured

Key result · Finance · financial crime
See where your pairwise model is blind
Baseline
A pairwise-additive prediction of the same network
Condition
The pairwise prediction was wrong by 72% on the collective response we measured
Outcome

What happened next

The 72% blind spot in the pairwise model is a method result. The stated next step is a detection pilot on the client's own data; no detection gain is claimed before it.

Decision it enabled

See where your pairwise model is blind

Instead of: A pairwise-additive prediction of the same network

Verified by · Device result + simulation, checked against exact references.

05 · How we know

How we know

  1. 01Pairwise-additive prediction error of 72% against the measured collective response, validated against exact references.
  2. 02Not claimed: a fraud-detection gain. This is a method result; a detection pilot on your data is the next step.
StatusMeasured on quantum hardwareClassical computationMethod measured on quantum hardware and in simulation. No detection gain claimed.

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