The decision on the table
Fraud rings act together. Most transaction-risk models score accounts and pairs of accounts, which adds up individual signals and can miss behaviour that only appears when a group moves at once.
Finance · financial crime
A method for reading collective behaviour in payment networks. We measured where pairwise models go wrong; no detection gain is claimed.
Headline result
The pairwise prediction was wrong by 72% on the collective response we measured
Measured on quantum hardwareClassical computation
Fraud rings act together. Most transaction-risk models score accounts and pairs of accounts, which adds up individual signals and can miss behaviour that only appears when a group moves at once.
We treat the payment network as a coupled system and read its collective response, on quantum hardware and in simulation, and compare that with what a pairwise-additive model predicts for the same network.
The pairwise prediction was wrong by 72% on the collective response we measured
The 72% blind spot in the pairwise model is a method result. The stated next step is a detection pilot on the client's own data; no detection gain is claimed before it.
Decision it enabled
See where your pairwise model is blind
Instead of: A pairwise-additive prediction of the same network
Verified by · Device result + simulation, checked against exact references.
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